Forecast and stock early
Use last year's data to estimate demand per product, then secure stock and packaging well ahead. Stock-outs mid-campaign waste the traffic you paid for.
Start from last year: sales by product and by day, the share that were COD, the returns that followed and the days when the warehouse struggled. Then adjust for what is different this time, such as a bigger catalogue, new campaigns or a new carrier. A forecast built on your own history beats a guess from the market.
Know your calendar
Saudi e-commerce has several predictable peaks, and each behaves differently. Some are short and intense, others stretch over weeks. Mark them on one calendar at the start of the year and plan backwards from each.
- Ramadan and the run-up to Eid, when gifting and household orders rise
- White Friday and other big sale events
- Saudi National Day and Founding Day promotions
- Back-to-school and seasonal changes in your own category
Build the forecast in steps
A forecast does not need advanced tools. A spreadsheet with a few honest columns is enough, as long as you update it as the peak approaches.
- Pull last year's daily orders and units by product for the same period.
- Adjust for growth, new products and your planned promotions.
- Turn units into stock needs, packaging needs and packing hours.
- Compare the busiest day with what your team and carriers can handle.
- Close the gaps: order stock, hire help, book extra pickups.
Line up carrier capacity
Peaks strain every network. Brief your carriers on expected volume, keep a second and third option ready and agree pickup times in advance.
Talk to each carrier early. Share your expected daily volumes, ask about extended pickup hours, peak surcharges and cut-off changes, and agree who your contact is on the busiest days. A carrier that has been warned plans for you; one that is surprised cannot.
- Share volume forecasts with carriers
- Keep a backup carrier live
- Pre-print labels and sort by carrier
Prepare the warehouse
The warehouse is where a peak is most often lost. Prepare the physical flow before the volume arrives, not during it.
- Stock the best sellers in accessible locations near packing
- Buy packaging early and in enough quantity for the high case
- Add temporary staff and train them before the first busy day
- Separate picking from packing so each can run at full speed
- Pre-print labels and sort by carrier where you can
Run a dry test before the rush
Test the whole flow on an ordinary busy day, ideally with a few hundred orders, to find what breaks while it is still cheap to fix.
- Run a large batch of waybills from your store or a spreadsheet.
- Time picking and packing and note the slowest step.
- Print and sort the labels, and check that the printers keep up.
- Hand over to the carrier on a real pickup and count the parcels together.
Protect your cash during the peak
Peaks consume cash before they return it. You buy extra stock, pay for packaging and shipping on a much larger volume, and COD from the busiest days settles after the peak has ended.
Forecast the cash gap with the same care as the orders. Top up your shipping wallet to cover the expected volume, keep a buffer for slow settlement and check the balance daily so waybills never stop for lack of funds.
Communicate delays before customers ask
Update delivery estimates on the product page and send proactive status messages. Honest communication cuts support load and protects reviews when networks are busy.
Decide who owns the message and prepare it before the peak. A banner on product pages, a line at checkout and a short template for status emails are enough. When a delay is real, send the update first; customers forgive a late parcel far more readily than silence.
A daily routine during the peak
During the peak, rhythm beats heroics. A short fixed routine keeps everyone aligned and surfaces problems while they are small.
- Morning: review overnight orders, stock levels and any carrier notices.
- Before cut-off: clear flagged orders and create the day's waybills in one batch.
- Pickup: count parcels per carrier and keep the signed record.
- Evening: check delayed shipments, update customers and note problems for tomorrow.
Review the peak afterwards
The weeks after a peak are when the best lessons are available, and when most teams are too tired to collect them. Schedule the review before the peak starts so it actually happens.
- Forecast versus actual orders, by product and by day
- Delivery success, delays and returns by carrier
- Stock-outs and overstock by product
- Where the warehouse slowed and why
- Three changes to make before the next peak